Cuba approaches a decisive moment with the 2026 Communist Party Congress, where the elite must choose early reform or face a permanent emergency amid structural blackouts and economic exhaustion.
Khanh Vu Duc, a professor at the University of Ottawa, in an opinion piece published by Havana Times on January 22, 2026, urges Cuba's elite to consider political and economic reforms amid the energy crisis. Roughly 40 percent of the island's energy supply once depended on Venezuela, but it is now disrupted, turning blackouts from episodic to structural. Economic exhaustion, demographic decline through emigration, and shrinking external support have made continuity no longer the least costly option.
Surveys reported by independent Cuban outlets show that a clear majority of younger Cubans would support political pluralism if it brings economic stability and opportunity. Vu Duc draws parallels to Vietnam's 1986 Đổi mới reforms, which arose from survival needs after Soviet abandonment, and Venezuela's collapse under Nicolas Maduro, driven by internal fragmentation more than sanctions alone.
The author stresses that outcomes are decided within political systems, not imposed from outside. Russia and China lack the capacity and incentive to underwrite Cuba's stagnation indefinitely, while the United States can shape incentives. Addressing Cuba's technocrats, Vu Duc argues that reform is not betrayal but responsible stewardship, safeguarding sovereignty and social dignity. He suggests initial steps like expanding space for enterprise, decriminalizing dissent, and inviting neutral observers. A free and prosperous Cuba will emerge from choice at the Communist Party Congress: reform or blackout.
