Future interest rates rose on Tuesday, June 9, 2026, increasing the chances of a Selic hike in August. The benchmark rate stands at 14.5% per year. The market attributes the shift to inflation expectations and external news.
The DI rate for January 2027 closed at 14.5%, up 0.03 percentage point. For August, traders see a 35% probability of a 0.25-point increase. Federal government interest spending reached 7.2% of GDP in the past 12 months, equivalent to R$1 trillion in real terms. This level is the highest since the start of the century, except during the Great Recession. Investors in Tesouro Selic bonds gained nearly 15% over the past 12 months. Long-term inflation-linked bonds posted losses above 5% in the same period.
