The recent US intervention in Venezuela, culminating in Nicolás Maduro's capture, has altered the regional oil landscape. President Donald Trump pledged to attract US investments to revitalize Venezuela's industry, while Colombia faces challenges in its crude production and exports. This dynamic could intensify competition in the heavy crude market.
Venezuela holds the world's largest oil reserves, at 304 billion barrels according to the International Energy Agency, surpassing Saudi Arabia (267 billion) and Iran (209 billion). Its production peaked at 3.45 million barrels per day in 1997, accounting for 17% of global supply. During Hugo Chávez's government until 2013, high crude prices—ranging from $111.25 in 2011 to $41.96 in 2020—funded initiatives like Petrocaribe, providing oil on preferential terms to Central American and Caribbean countries.
After Nicolás Maduro's succession, Venezuela's output plummeted from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2013-2015 to 783,000 in 2023. Colombia hit 1 million barrels per day in those years but also declined to 777,000 in 2023, 772,000 in 2024, and 750,000 in 2025, per the National Hydrocarbons Agency. Venezuela rebounded to 900,000 barrels in 2024 and nearly 1 million in 2025.
The turning point came with the US intervention, leading to Maduro's capture and handover to US justice. In a press conference, Trump stated: “We will have big US oil companies go into Venezuela and spend billions of dollars, fix the infrastructure which is very damaged, and start making money for the country.” He mentioned “oil” 26 times and demanded “total access to the oil.” However, State Department head Marco Rubio clarified: “We don't need Venezuelan oil, we have plenty of oil. What we will not allow is its oil industry to fall into the hands of US adversaries like China, Russia, or Iran”.
The US, producing 14 million barrels per day as the world's top producer, seeks Venezuela's heavy crude for its Gulf Coast refineries, which import 5.9 million daily. Despite sanctions, Chevron has continued operations there. For Colombia, reliant on oil as its main export and source of foreign currency, volatility is key. With Brent prices below $60 due to supply glut and OPEC's relaxed strategy, a Venezuelan recovery could harm Colombia in the heavy crude niche, cutting exports and prices.
