The Indonesian rupiah traded fluktuatively and closed weaker against the US dollar on Tuesday, overshadowed by forecasts of global economic disruptions in 2026. Analysts warn that intensifying great-power competition and growth slowdowns could heighten uncertainties for emerging markets like Indonesia.
On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, at 09:00 WIB, the rupiah traded at Rp16,671 per US dollar, down 4 points or 0.02% from the previous level of Rp16,667. According to Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), the rupiah closed at Rp16,669 per US dollar on Monday, December 15, weakened by 17 points from Rp16,652 on Friday, December 12.
Economist and money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that 2026 could be one of the most unpredictable years in recent decades. Competition among major countries may intensify, global alliances could shift, and regional conflicts might expand.
Global institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), and OECD predict a slowdown in global economic growth, characterized by fragmentation and major transformations. This deceleration is driven by weakening world trade, supply chains restructured for security rather than efficiency, public debt at record highs in many countries, and technological advancements outpacing new regulations.
Asset valuations in several nations remain vulnerable after rapid increases in recent years. The banking system has not fully recovered from pressures of non-performing loans and portfolio losses amid high interest rates.
A prolonged era of higher interest rates for longer periods could pressure businesses heading into 2026, compounded by rising social and political uncertainties.
Combined, 2026 risks becoming a year where many things go awry, including a sharper global economic slowdown, increased protectionism and export restrictions, energy instability, prolonged conflicts, and technological disruptions beyond adaptation capacities.
