分析师预计，2026年全球奢侈品行业将加速增长，中国富裕消费者支出复苏将成为关键驱动力，尽管房地产市场波动和伊朗战争带来的石油价格冲击构成挑战。HSBC、德意志银行和法国巴黎银行预测全球销售额增长5.5%至6%。
奢侈品行业在2025年相对停滞后，预计2026年将反弹，中国长期期待的复苏成为关键因素，即使伊朗战争给全球市场蒙上阴影，分析师表示。
“我们认为现在是关注该行业的时候，因为我们认为2026年有机销售增长率将进一步加速，在两年温和增长率后回归增长……主要由两大增长驱动力驱动：美国和中国，”HSBC由Anne-Laure Bismuth领导的分析师在3月30日的报告中写道。
尽管伊朗战争和全球能源市场动荡，HSBC维持对中国大陆8%和美国10%的增长预测，同时将欧洲展望从4%下调至2.5%，中东从6%增长修正为5%下降。
德意志银行分析师同意中国复苏将是今年行业关键驱动力，但警告复苏可能“波动”，因为中国经济仍面临诸多挑战，特别是持续的房地产危机。
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China's economy grew 4.7 percent year on year in the first half of 2026, according to official data released on Wednesday.
Burberry posted a 4% increase in comparable retail sales for the first quarter of its 2027 fiscal year, driven by strong demand in the Americas and Greater China. The British luxury brand said sales reached £455 million on a constant currency basis. Growth came despite a decline in the EMEIA region linked to lower tourist spending.
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China's economy posted a steady recovery in the first four months of 2026, with key indicators rebounding and new growth drivers gaining momentum.
Swiss luxury group Richemont reported stronger than expected sales growth in its jewelry division for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. The results highlight continued momentum in the jewelry segment amid mixed performance across the broader luxury sector.