Analysts forecast accelerated growth for the global luxury sector in 2026, with China’s consumer spending rebound as a key driver despite challenges from a volatile property market and oil shocks from the war in Iran. HSBC, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas predict global sales growth of 5.5 to 6 per cent.
The luxury industry is forecast to accelerate in 2026 after a relatively stagnant 2025, with China’s long-awaited recovery emerging as a pivotal factor even as the war in Iran casts a shadow over global markets, according to analysts.
“We believe it is time to look at the sector, as we think the organic sales growth rate should further accelerate in 2026 and return to growth after two years of more muted sales growth rates … mostly driven by the two key drivers of growth: the US and China,” wrote HSBC analysts led by Anne-Laure Bismuth in a March 30 note.
Despite the war in Iran and turmoil in global energy markets, HSBC held its forecasts for mainland China at 8 per cent and the United States at 10 per cent, while cutting Europe from 4 to 2.5 per cent and revising the Middle East from 6 per cent growth to a 5 per cent decline.
Deutsche Bank analysts agreed that China’s recovery would be a crucial driver for the sector this year but cautioned that it might be “volatile” as the country’s economy faces challenges, notably the lingering property crisis.
