法律专家警告称，香港若实施预测市场禁令，将在执法和起诉方面遭遇重大的现实挑战。
律师和一名立法会议员表示，尽管禁令可能限制民众接触不受监管的博彩平台，但当局在收集证据及对用户采取法律行动方面将面临困难。霍金路伟律师事务所知识产权法律顾问PJ Kaur表示：“如果实施此类禁令，我们预计当局在打击参与在线预测市场交易的个人时，将面临现实挑战。”预测市场主要在海外网站运营，允许用户就天气预报、选举结果和地缘政治发展等事件进行交易。目前规模最大的平台是总部位于纽约的Polymarket和Kalshi。根据DeFiLlama的数据，Polymarket在过去七天内的交易额为11亿美元，而Kalshi的交易额则达到28.3亿美元。
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Spain’s gambling regulator has ordered internet providers to block access to prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. The move targets unlicensed betting products tied to future events. Proceedings against the companies are expected to last three to four months.
Residents in Hong Kong continue to use platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi for bets on politics and other topics even after official warnings.
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Hong Kong's government has suspended its plan to launch legal basketball betting, citing the rise of prediction markets. Home and Youth Affairs Minister Alice Mak Mei-kuen said the decision considers local circumstances and evolving external conditions to protect public interest. Former lawmaker Doreen Kong Yuk-foon called for predicting technological influences in future policy papers.
Prediction market platform Polymarket has partnered with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to monitor trading activity and detect potential insider trading. The collaboration introduces onchain tools to flag suspicious patterns amid rising regulatory scrutiny. Polymarket announced the move on Thursday.
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A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket shows prediction markets shifting from occasional bets to platforms with daily retail engagement. Trading volumes on Polymarket have surged to over $20 billion monthly in early 2026. The industry is projected to reach $240 billion this year.
Pro-Trump influencers on X are using odds from prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to claim fraud in last Tuesday's Los Angeles mayoral election, despite no evidence of wrongdoing.
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Kalshi filed a lawsuit against Illinois officials on Tuesday, challenging a new state tax on sports-related prediction markets. The suit was brought in the US District Court for the Northern District of Illinois. It alleges that state officials have overstepped federal regulatory authority.