Legal experts warn that a ban on prediction markets in Hong Kong would encounter significant practical challenges in enforcement and prosecution.
Lawyers and a legislator stated that while a ban could limit access to unregulated betting platforms, authorities would struggle with evidence collection and legal action against users.
PJ Kaur, counsel in intellectual property at Hogan Lovells, said: “If there were such a ban, we foresee there would be practical challenges for the authorities to crack down on individuals engaging in prediction market transactions online.”
Prediction markets operate primarily on overseas websites and enable trading on events such as weather forecasts, election results, and geopolitical developments. The largest platforms are New York-based Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to DeFiLlama, Polymarket recorded US$1.1 billion in trades over the past seven days, while Kalshi saw US$2.83 billion.
