Tesla is set to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 22, following record vehicle deliveries of 497,099 units. The report comes amid analyst expectations of a more than 20% year-over-year profit drop, driven by price cuts and expiring EV tax credits. Investors will scrutinize margins and updates on AI and robotics from CEO Elon Musk.
Tesla's Q3 earnings, scheduled for after market close on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, mark a key event for investors after the company reported record deliveries of 497,099 vehicles in the quarter, up 7.4% from the previous year and surpassing Wall Street forecasts of around 443,000 units. The surge was fueled by a rush of U.S. buyers seeking to claim a $7,500 federal EV tax credit before its September 30 expiration, prompting Tesla to offer discounts and financing deals.
On October 7, Tesla launched more affordable Standard Range versions of the Model Y at around $39,990 and Model 3 at $36,990, achieved by trimming features like smaller batteries and omitting Autopilot capabilities. These price reductions of about $4,000 to $5,000 disappointed some investors, leading to a 4% stock drop the following day. Tesla shares closed last week near the mid-$430s, slightly below their 52-week high of $453 on October 6, but up approximately 80% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 17% gain.
Analysts are divided on Tesla's $1.4 trillion market cap and 250 times forward earnings valuation. Bulls like Wedbush's Dan Ives maintain a $600 price target, citing potential in self-driving tech and robotaxis, while the average 12-month target sits at $364, with half of analysts rating it Hold or Sell. Consensus forecasts a quarterly profit decline of over 20% year-over-year, though some like Wells Fargo anticipate an earnings beat. Proxy adviser ISS recommended rejecting Elon Musk's proposed $1 trillion pay package on Friday, calling it excessive and tied to an $8.5 trillion valuation goal by 2035.
The earnings call at 4:30 p.m. EDT will include Musk's commentary on Q4 outlook, demand in China and Europe, and progress in AI, robotics like Optimus, and energy storage, which hit a record 12.5 GWh deployment. Broader market context includes a delayed September CPI report on October 24 due to a government shutdown, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
