Global weather agencies have declared that El Niño has started in the tropical Pacific. Models indicate a 63 per cent chance it will become a very strong or super El Niño.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency both announced the onset after sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific exceeded 0.5°C above normal for the past month. Climate models project these conditions will continue for at least the next six months.
Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA’s National Weather Service noted westerly wind anomalies across the region south of Hawaii, which are reducing trade winds and allowing warm water to shift eastward. Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office described the event as likely one of the most intense on record.
Temperatures are expected to peak this winter and persist into 2027, adding to global warming trends. The pattern raises the likelihood of wetter conditions in southern California and drier weather in parts of South-East Asia and South-East Africa.