BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that US politics, rather than cryptocurrency fundamentals, will propel Bitcoin to new heights. He predicts aggressive monetary expansion under a Republican administration, provided gasoline prices remain stable. This scenario, Hayes claims, creates ideal conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin to thrive.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has outlined a bold thesis in a recent blog post: the trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC) hinges more on American electoral dynamics than on its intrinsic market drivers. Published on January 6, 2026, Hayes' analysis focuses on the incentives facing President Trump ahead of the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.
At the core of his argument is the '10% rule,' which posits that if the national average gasoline price surges more than 10% in the three months preceding an election compared to January levels, control of one or more branches of government typically shifts. To safeguard Republican prospects, Hayes suggests Trump must stimulate the economy vigorously—expanding credit and nominal GDP—while suppressing oil prices to avoid alienating inflation-sensitive voters.
Hayes envisions a base case where oil prices subside or decline, fueled by expectations of increased US influence over Venezuelan oil supplies. He anticipates that Trump, alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, will pursue expansive fiscal policies reminiscent of 2020. Key indicators to monitor include the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% and spikes in the MOVE Index, a gauge of bond market volatility. Hayes references last year's tariff-induced market turmoil as evidence of how swiftly political pressures can alter course.
Bitcoin, in Hayes' view, is uniquely positioned amid these forces. Unlike traditional assets vulnerable to energy cost fluctuations, BTC miners experience uniform impacts, making the cryptocurrency more responsive to broader liquidity injections and dollar debasement. 'Nothing stops this train,' Hayes writes, citing analyst Lyn Alden, in describing a self-reinforcing loop of deficit spending, Treasury issuance, and central bank interventions.
For 2026, Hayes reveals that his firm, Maelstrom, is operating at near-maximum risk exposure with scant stablecoin reserves. The strategy involves accumulating BTC while shifting investments toward privacy-oriented tokens and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, which he expects to excel in a credit-expansion environment. Ultimately, Hayes concludes that electoral imperatives will prioritize stimulus over austerity, urging investors to maintain bullish stances on Bitcoin and risk assets.
