The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee (Carf) warned that net tax revenue in 2025 will be 8.3 trillion pesos below the DIAN's target. In its November report, Carf reviewed fiscal projections with data up to October, noting primary spending exceeding forecasts. This creates budgetary pressures that could extend into 2026.
The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee (Carf) published its November fiscal monitoring report, analyzing gross tax revenue, budget execution, and public debt indicators up to September and October. According to the report, net revenue in 2025 is estimated at 8.3 trillion pesos below the target set by the National Tax and Customs Directorate (DIAN). "As of September, the observed monthly net revenue has averaged 99% coincidence against Carf's monthly estimate. On average, in the last quarter, the monthly difference between Carf's February projection (which included the effect of the July self-withholding increase decree) and the adjusted one is 178 billion pesos," the committee stated.
Regarding primary spending, it is projected at 362.2 trillion pesos, equivalent to 20% of GDP, which is 9.1 trillion pesos (0.5 percentage points of GDP) above the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MFMP) target of 19.5% of GDP. Investment spending would reach 53.1 trillion pesos (2.9% of GDP), 19.2 trillion pesos more than the MFMP target, marking the highest level since 2015. The 2025 budgetary reserve is estimated at 40.2 trillion pesos (2.2% of GDP), potentially creating fiscal pressure in 2026.
"Carf calculations indicate that to meet the MFMP primary spending target (353.1 trillion pesos), the Ministry of Finance would need to revise the Annual Cash Plan downward by 4.5 trillion pesos to 345.5 trillion pesos; in any case, investment spending, which was 37.7 trillion pesos as of September 2025, already exceeds the MFMP target (33.9 trillion pesos)," the entity added.
As of October, obligation execution was 67.2%, 4.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. Total fiscal spending of the National Central Government (GNC) reached 18.6% of GDP and primary spending 15.7%, representing 76.7% and 81% of the 2025 MFMP targets, respectively. Payment of the 2024 budgetary reserve recorded 41.3 trillion pesos, or 79.9% of the total committed. The peso cash balance closed October at 10.3 trillion pesos, down 7.1 trillion pesos from September, amid a 4 trillion peso increase in the Nation's TES portfolio.