Economists Bernardo Fontaine and Bettina Horst have warned that the poverty drop revealed by the Casen 2024 survey stems mainly from state subsidies, not rising autonomous household incomes. In a Radio Agricultura discussion, both experts—potential cabinet picks for José Antonio Kast—criticized the growing state dependence and fiscal fragility. The poverty rate fell to 17.3%, but gaps persist, especially among migrants.
The National Socioeconomic Characterization Survey (Casen) 2024, recently published, shows Chile's poverty rate dropping to 17.3%, an improvement over prior measurements. However, economists Bernardo Fontaine and Bettina Horst, in a January 12, 2026, Radio Agricultura discussion, questioned the sustainability of this reduction. Both have been mentioned as potential cabinet members for José Antonio Kast.
Fontaine highlighted a structural shift in household incomes: in 2009, employment accounted for 56% of total income and subsidies 43%; by 2024, autonomous incomes fell to 30%, while monetary subsidies rose to 70%. "Labor incomes have deteriorated sharply," he noted. He added: “If this were a medical treatment, it is very effective in the short term, but not sustainable in the long term. We cannot think that poverty will be overcome only through monetary transfers, because no central government budget can withstand it.”
Horst stressed labor market weaknesses, with the occupation rate failing to recover pre-pandemic levels, leading to a slower economy and greater state reliance. Both agreed the education system favors higher education over school and technical training. “We need fewer university graduates and more tradespeople. Finding a good welder or crane operator today is a problem,” Fontaine stated.
On fiscal matters, they criticized the current government's management as “frankly deficitary,” despite high copper prices. Horst warned of a “complex fiscal reality” from social spending without adequate funding, including pension reforms and public sector adjustments.
A letter to the editor in La Tercera, signed by Juan Pablo Ramaciotti, executive director of the Migration Policy Center, revealed persistent gaps: in 2024, income poverty affects 23.4% of the migrant population versus 16.7% of Chileans born in the country. Severe poverty impacts 12% of migrants compared to 5.6% of locals, and multidimensional poverty exceeds 25% among migrants versus under 20% for Chileans. Ramaciotti called for strengthening formal labor insertion and promoting regular migration to reduce vulnerabilities.
