In 2026, the Philippines will assume the ASEAN chairmanship, offering a chance to finalize a legally-binding Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea. This could reduce tensions from China's actions and protect coastal states' rights. However, challenges remain, including the COC's scope and engagement with China.
The South China Sea serves as a vital shipping route handling $5.3 trillion in commercial goods annually, rich in marine life and resources. The Philippines stands at the center of tensions due to China's coercive and unlawful actions, compounded by ASEAN's decades-long failure to finalize a Code of Conduct (COC). On November 14, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. inaugurated the Philippines' ASEAN chairmanship for 2026, presenting an opportunity to establish standards on this maritime issue.
The COC would act as a security blanket against harassment of military personnel, fisherfolk, and scientists, reducing risks of escalation, misunderstandings, or miscalculations. It would foster communication, trust, and cooperation in marine environmental protection, research, and search and rescue operations. Economically, it ensures secure sea lanes and attracts foreign investment.
Challenges persist: the COC's geographical scope—full South China Sea for the Philippines and Vietnam, or limited to areas not fully controlled by China; its binding nature, as China resists recognizing the 2016 Arbitral Award; inclusion of external powers like the US, a Philippine ally but Chinese rival; ASEAN's institutional flaws, such as its consensus model leading to silence on China's actions; and the 2026 deadline, risking a document with unfulfilled commitments.
For success, the Philippines must pursue a clear strategy, including unifying ASEAN's voice, developing strategic communications, enhancing defense capabilities, and engaging China critically in economic, environmental, and disaster response areas. This approach could yield a rules-based framework for regional stability.