China's imports of Russian crude spiked in January and February 2026, comprising over one-fifth of its total imported crude by volume. Analysts attribute this to stockpiling amid rising geopolitical risks before the Middle East conflict. However, the Iran war could moderate future Russian shipments to China.
In the first two months of 2026, China's imports of Russian crude surged, making up over one-fifth of its total imported crude by volume. Russian crude has traded at a steep discount since Western sanctions following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Overall, China's total crude import value rose just 5.8 per cent in US dollar terms. Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said: “China has been an opportunistic oil buyer, capitalising on periods of low oil prices to fill its stockpile.” He noted that China was likely aware of rising geopolitical risks and stockpiled crude in January and February, when oil markets had not yet priced in the Middle East conflict. Analysts say shifting sanctions policies to stabilise global energy markets, along with rising demand from other countries amid the US-Israel war with Iran, could moderate Russia’s shipments to China in coming months.
