The 2026 review of the Mexico, United States, and Canada Agreement (T-MEC) is shaping up as a complex process fraught with uncertainty, according to experts. The event will define commercial certainty for North America, with risks of U.S. protectionism and potential structural changes. Mexico faces challenges in sectors like energy, labor, and migration.
The T-MEC review, scheduled to include a key meeting on July 1, 2026, will assess whether the agreement extends for another 16 years. In the United States, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), led by Jamieson Greer, was required to submit a report at least 180 days prior, on January 2, 2026, evaluating the treaty and recommending actions. Implementation law HR5430 demands detailing recommendations to resolve concerns and avoid uncertainty, especially ahead of November 2026 elections.
In Canada, public consultations from August to October 2024, and November 2025, showed private sector support for continuing the treaty. Participants highlighted its role in business and investment stability, supply chain integration, protection of the dispute resolution mechanism—as in the automotive rules of origin case—and inclusion of issues like critical minerals, climate change, artificial intelligence, and innovation. The Canadian report, under Minister Dominic LeBlanc, is expected before the end of January 2026.
President Donald Trump ordered in January 2025 an evaluation of the T-MEC's impact on U.S. workers, farmers, and businesses, arguing that Mexico and Canada have taken advantage of American producers' good faith. However, the U.S. private sector supports respecting the current structure and avoiding a deep renegotiation like that of 2017. Silvia Armendáriz Bárcenas of Livingston International pointed to challenges in energy, auto parts, labor, and migration, warning that the U.S. might let the treaty expire without changes if no agreement is reached.
Janneth Quiroz Zamora of Monex recommended anticipating agreements with the U.S. to reduce uncertainty, which has delayed investments and limited Mexico's GDP growth to under 0.5% in 2025. Óscar Ocampo of IMCO noted that handling tariffs under Section 232 and IEEPA will be key; a likely scenario is extending the review to 2027, providing predictability but no long-term certainty. A deep renegotiation is unlikely due to political costs in the U.S.
Enrique Quintana, in his analysis, emphasized that the review is not a routine negotiation but the anchor of Mexico's export model, with Mexico-U.S. trade at record highs despite protectionism. Divergent positions could lead to bilateral schemes, affecting regional integration.
