The T-MEC review poses major hurdles for Mexico, as the US prioritizes national security over commercial efficiency. Analysts highlight Mexico's vulnerability in bilateral talks and shifting strategic perceptions. Mexico's low 0.7% economic growth in 2025 worsens its position.
US trade policy has shifted toward a national security lens, moving away from the efficiency model that shaped NAFTA and T-MEC. Jacques Rogozinski argues that Washington can trade without formal treaties, keeping zero tariffs on strategic sectors via administrative decisions, while Mexico relies on the agreement's legal certainty to attract investment.
In this context, a scenario emerges where the US and Canada form a common market excluding Mexico, due to perceptions of the latter as a risk from security issues, institutional decay, and energy shortages. Rogozinski notes that nearly three in ten vehicles sold in Mexico are Chinese, signaling a strategic reconfiguration that alarms Washington.
Jorge Molina Larrondo describes the renegotiation as arduous and lengthy, potentially over a year, with key issues like critical minerals (lithium and silver), artificial intelligence, China policies, and non-tariff barriers from the previous López Obrador government. Republican proposals in Congress, such as including the 1944 Water Treaty or banning contracts with Cuban doctors over forced labor, complicate matters.
The USTR statement after the meeting between Secretary Ebrard and Ambassador Greer indicates formal consultations on bilateral structural changes, vulnerable for Mexico without Canada at the table. Moreover, Sheinbaum's support for Cuba clashes with a US executive order viewing it as a threat, potentially drawing tariffs. With only 0.7% growth in 2025, Mexico faces heightened uncertainty if the review extends to 2027.
Both analysts agree that US corporate lobbying in Washington will shape trade flows, not traditional trilateral tables, leaving Mexico at a strategic disadvantage.
