Over six years after the 2019 reform, Brazil's pension deficit keeps rising, according to a Folha de S.Paulo analysis. The combined shortfall of INSS, civil servants, and military jumped from R$ 271.7 billion in 2015 to R$ 442 billion in 2025. The piece argues that further adjustments are essential for fiscal sustainability and intergenerational justice.
An opinion piece in Folha de S.Paulo on February 15, 2026, points out that despite the 2019 pension reform, figures show the need for further tweaks. Citing a Valor Econômico report, the total adjusted deficit rose 62.7% in real terms, from 2.64% of GDP in 2015 to 3.42% in 2025.
For INSS, covering private sector workers, the imbalance reached R$ 322 billion in 2025, or 2.49% of GDP. Temporary factors, such as a backlog of about 3 million stalled requests and revenue boosts from job formalization and lower unemployment, eased 2024's outcome, but these are expected to fade amid economic slowdown.
The ratio of contributors to beneficiaries dropped from 1.7 in 2014 to 1.53 in 2024. In the public sector, shortfalls were R$ 66.6 billion for civilians (0.52% of GDP) and R$ 53.3 billion for military (0.41% of GDP), seen as unfair compared to OECD averages of around 8% of GDP on pensions versus Brazil's 11%, despite a smaller elderly share.
The article critiques President Lula's policy of minimum wage hikes above inflation, benefiting retirees, and overly generous public sector rules, particularly for the military. Shifts in the labor market, like rising MEIs with minimal contributions, worsen revenue erosion.
Recommendations involve raising the minimum age, equalizing rules for men and women, curbing special regimes, and decoupling minimum wage from pension benefits to maintain retirees' purchasing power without tying it to active market productivity.
