Major global investment banks' average forecast for South Korea's 2026 economic growth reached 3 percent by the end of June. Strong semiconductor exports drove the upward revision.
Data compiled by the Korea Center for International Finance showed that the average 2026 real GDP growth forecast from eight major investment banks, including JPMorgan and Citi, reached 3 percent at the end of June. The figure rose 0.2 percentage point from May and marked the first time it hit the 3 percent level.
JPMorgan raised its June forecast to 3.7 percent, while Citi lifted its projection to 3.5 percent. Barclays and Goldman Sachs each projected 2.7 percent, HSBC and UBS forecast 2.8 percent each, Bank of America projected 3.1 percent, and Nomura forecast 2.4 percent.
The improved outlook reflects strong semiconductor exports fueled by surging global demand for AI-related chips. South Korea's exports reached a record $102.25 billion in June, and semiconductor exports nearly tripled to a record $44.82 billion.
The Bank of Korea reported that the country's GDP expanded 1.8 percent in the first quarter. The central bank is widely expected to raise its 2026 growth forecast in August from its current projection of 2.6 percent.
