截至6月底，全球主要投资银行对韩国2026年经济增长的平均预期已达到3%。强劲的半导体出口推动了此次上调。
韩国国际金融中心汇编的数据显示，包括摩根大通和花旗在内的八家主要投资银行对韩国2026年实际GDP的平均增长预期在6月底达到3%。这一数字较5月份上升了0.2个百分点，也是首次达到3%的水平。
摩根大通将其6月份的预期上调至3.7%，花旗将其预测上调至3.5%。巴克莱银行和高盛均预测为2.7%，汇丰银行和瑞银均预测为2.8%，美国银行预测为3.1%，野村证券预测为2.4%。
这一前景的改善反映了受全球人工智能相关芯片需求激增推动的强劲半导体出口。韩国6月份出口额达到创纪录的1022.5亿美元，半导体出口额近乎翻了三番，达到创纪录的448.2亿美元。
韩国银行报告称，该国第一季度GDP增长了1.8%。外界普遍预计韩国央行将在8月份将其2026年的增长预期从目前的2.6%上调。
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South Korea's real GDP jumped 1.7 percent in Q1 2026 from the prior quarter—the strongest growth in 5½ years—despite Middle East tensions, easily topping the Bank of Korea's 0.9 percent forecast on robust exports and steady domestic demand. Part of the rebound following 2025's modest 1% annual expansion (see prior article in series).
The Bank of Korea reported on June 9 that real GDP rose 1.8 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter. This marks the fastest quarterly growth in more than five years.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea unchanged at 1.9 percent despite the Middle East crisis. The institution raised its inflation outlook for this year by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing rising global oil prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said strong exports and effects from a supplementary budget kept the growth outlook steady.
The Bank of Korea faces mounting pressure for monetary tightening after a spike in global oil prices triggered by Middle East conflict. Markets increasingly expect the benchmark rate to reach 3 percent by year-end.
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South Korea's exports jumped 53 percent from a year earlier to a record $87.8 billion in May, driven by the semiconductor supercycle.