国际货币基金组织维持韩国2026年经济增长预期于1.9%,上调通胀预期至2.5%

尽管受到中东危机影响,国际货币基金组织(IMF)仍将韩国2026年的经济增长预期维持在1.9%不变。受全球油价上涨影响,该机构将韩国今年的通胀预期上调了0.7个百分点,至2.5%。韩国企划财政部表示,强劲的出口表现和补充预算的协同效应使得经济增长预期保持稳定。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)在周二发布的《世界经济展望》报告中,将韩国2026年的经济增长预期维持在1.9%不变。尽管面临中东危机,这一亚洲第四大经济体的增长前景依然稳固,而全球增长预测则较1月份下调了0.2个百分点,至3.1%。

韩国企划财政部援引IMF报告称:“尽管受到中东局势的影响,但得益于强劲的出口以及补充预算带来的抵消效应,韩国的经济增长前景保持不变。”该部补充道:“政府将在不确定性加剧的情况下维持当前的应急响应体系,并迅速采取措施稳定物价、供应链和金融市场。”

受中东危机导致供应中断进而推高全球油价的影响,IMF将韩国今年的通胀预期上调了0.7个百分点,至2.5%。此次预测假设这场始于2月底(美以对伊朗进行打击后)的冲突将在几周内结束,能源及其他商品的生产和出口将在2026年中期恢复正常。

IMF的预测高于经济合作与发展组织(OECD)给出的1.7%的预期;OECD曾于去年12月给出2.1%的预测,并在上月进行了下调。韩国政府和韩国银行(BOK)此前曾预测增长率为2.0%,但韩国银行上周表示,受危机影响,经济增长势头较预期更为放缓,可能会低于此前的预测水平。

IMF每年发布四次展望报告,分别在1月、4月、7月和10月,其中4月和10月的报告涵盖所有成员国。

相关文章

Bank of Korea Governor announces steady 2.5% interest rate amid Middle East war uncertainties.
AI 生成的图像

Bank of Korea holds key rate at 2.5% for seventh straight meeting amid Middle East war

由 AI 报道 AI 生成的图像

South Korea's Bank of Korea unanimously kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5 percent on April 10, marking the seventh consecutive hold since July 2025 amid high uncertainty from the Middle East war, which has fueled inflation risks, growth slowdowns, and won weakness. Governor Rhee Chang-yong noted the won could strengthen quickly if tensions ease. The next policy meeting is May 28.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of 3.1% for 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from prior estimates, due to the Middle East conflict. Global inflation would rise to 4.4% from higher energy costs. In adverse scenarios, growth could drop to near 2% with inflation near 6%.

由 AI 报道

More than half of economic experts expect South Korea's economic growth to remain in the 1 percent range this year, according to a local survey. The poll, conducted by Southernpost Inc. for the Korea Enterprises Federation (KEF), showed 54 percent of 100 economics professors holding this view. The average forecast stands at 1.8 percent, below the government's 2 percent outlook and the IMF's 1.9 percent projection.

South Korea's industrial output rose 2.5% in February from the previous month, the fastest growth in five years and eight months. Government data showed retail sales unchanged while facility investment jumped 13.5%. The Middle East crisis has had minimal impact so far.

由 AI 报道

Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Yoo Sang-dai stated that uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's rate path has deepened following the latest FOMC decision to hold benchmark rates at 3.5-3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, amid persistent Middle East instability. The BOK will monitor risks closely and act if needed to stabilize markets.

South Korea's government, ruling Democratic Party and presidential office agreed on a 25 trillion-won supplementary budget to address the Middle East crisis. The bill is set for submission to the National Assembly by end-March and passage on April 10. It aims to ease high oil prices and economic uncertainties.

由 AI 报道

A senior Cheong Wa Dae official said the government may consider another supplementary budget in the second half if the Middle East crisis persists. Hong Ik-pyo, presidential secretary for political affairs, denied opposition claims that the pending 26.2 trillion-won extra budget seeks political leverage before June 3 local elections. He cited downgraded growth forecasts and rising fuel prices.

 

 

 

此网站使用 cookie

我们使用 cookie 进行分析以改进我们的网站。阅读我们的 隐私政策 以获取更多信息。
拒绝