在中东冲突引发全球油价飙升后，韩国央行面临着越来越大的货币紧缩压力。市场普遍预计基准利率将在年底前达到3%。
韩国央行行长申铉松（Shin Hyun-song）将于周四主持其自四月上任以来的首次货币政策委员会会议。市场预计央行将维持2.50%的利率不变，但会密切关注其释放的未来紧缩信号。
韩国央行自去年五月将利率降至2.50%以来，已连续七次会议维持基准利率不变。四月份生产者价格指数较前月上涨2.5%，创下1998年二月以来的最大单月涨幅。
花旗银行韩国首席经济学家金真昱（Kim Jin-wook）表示，目前的基准预期是央行将在维持2.50%政策利率的同时释放明显的鹰派信号。高级副行长柳相大（Ryoo Sang-dai）曾于5月4日表示，若经济增长超过2%，且通胀率可能超过2.2%，则意味着是时候考虑加息了。
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South Korea's Bank of Korea unanimously kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5 percent on April 10, marking the seventh consecutive hold since July 2025 amid high uncertainty from the Middle East war, which has fueled inflation risks, growth slowdowns, and won weakness. Governor Rhee Chang-yong noted the won could strengthen quickly if tensions ease. The next policy meeting is May 28.
Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Yoo Sang-dai stated that uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's rate path has deepened following the latest FOMC decision to hold benchmark rates at 3.5-3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, amid persistent Middle East instability. The BOK will monitor risks closely and act if needed to stabilize markets.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea unchanged at 1.9 percent despite the Middle East crisis. The institution raised its inflation outlook for this year by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing rising global oil prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said strong exports and effects from a supplementary budget kept the growth outlook steady.
South Korea's producer price index (PPI) rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier to 122.56 in February, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase due to higher agricultural costs and global oil prices, Bank of Korea data showed. A key gauge of future consumer inflation, the index was up 2.4 percent year-on-year, the fastest growth since July 2024.
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South Korea's consumer prices rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in April, up from March's 2.2 percent and the fastest pace in 21 months, driven by soaring fuel costs from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. Government data confirmed the figures.
In its May 1, 2026 board meeting, Banco de la República unanimously kept the benchmark interest rate at 11.25%, surprising analysts expecting a hike to combat accelerating inflation. Finance Minister Germán Ávila participated fully, citing constructive dialogue, while board members justified the decision to maintain stability amid political pressures.