中東情勢の緊迫化に伴う世界的な原油価格の急騰を受け、韓国銀行（中央銀行）は金融引き締めへの圧力を強めている。市場では、年末までに基準金利が3%に達するという見方が広がっている。
韓国銀行の申鉉松（シン・ヒョンソン）総裁は、4月の就任以来初となる金融通貨委員会を木曜日に主催する。市場は、金利が2.50%で据え置かれると予想しつつも、将来の引き締めに関するシグナルに注目している。
同中央銀行は、昨年5月に基準金利を2.50%に引き下げて以来、7会合連続で金利を据え置いている。4月の生産者物価指数は前月比で2.5%上昇し、1998年2月以来の急激な伸びとなった。
シティバンク・コリアのチーフエコノミストであるキム・ジンウク氏は、政策金利を2.50%に据え置きつつも、タカ派的な姿勢が鮮明になるのが基本シナリオだと指摘した。柳相大（リュ・サンデ）副総裁は5月4日、2%を超える成長率と2.2%を上回る可能性があるインフレ率を考慮すると、利上げを検討すべき時期に来ているとの見解を示している。
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South Korea's Bank of Korea unanimously kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5 percent on April 10, marking the seventh consecutive hold since July 2025 amid high uncertainty from the Middle East war, which has fueled inflation risks, growth slowdowns, and won weakness. Governor Rhee Chang-yong noted the won could strengthen quickly if tensions ease. The next policy meeting is May 28.
Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Yoo Sang-dai stated that uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's rate path has deepened following the latest FOMC decision to hold benchmark rates at 3.5-3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, amid persistent Middle East instability. The BOK will monitor risks closely and act if needed to stabilize markets.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea unchanged at 1.9 percent despite the Middle East crisis. The institution raised its inflation outlook for this year by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing rising global oil prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said strong exports and effects from a supplementary budget kept the growth outlook steady.
South Korea's producer price index (PPI) rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier to 122.56 in February, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase due to higher agricultural costs and global oil prices, Bank of Korea data showed. A key gauge of future consumer inflation, the index was up 2.4 percent year-on-year, the fastest growth since July 2024.
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South Korea's consumer prices rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in April, up from March's 2.2 percent and the fastest pace in 21 months, driven by soaring fuel costs from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. Government data confirmed the figures.
In its May 1, 2026 board meeting, Banco de la República unanimously kept the benchmark interest rate at 11.25%, surprising analysts expecting a hike to combat accelerating inflation. Finance Minister Germán Ávila participated fully, citing constructive dialogue, while board members justified the decision to maintain stability amid political pressures.