Bank of Korea Governor announces steady 2.5% interest rate amid Middle East war uncertainties.
Bank of Korea Governor announces steady 2.5% interest rate amid Middle East war uncertainties.
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受中东战争影响,韩国央行连续第七次将基准利率维持在2.5%

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4月10日,韩国银行一致决定将基准利率维持在2.5%不变。这是自2025年7月以来连续第七次按兵不动。受中东战争带来的高不确定性影响,通胀风险加剧、经济增长放缓且韩元走弱。行长李昌镛表示,如果紧张局势缓解,韩元有望迅速走强。下一次政策会议定于5月28日举行。

韩国银行货币政策委员会在4月10日于首尔召开的会议上一致决定将基准利率维持在2.5%,这一举措符合市场普遍预期。这是自2025年7月以来连续第七次维持利率不变,在此之前,为支持经济增长,该行曾从2024年10月开始累计降息100个基点,将利率从3.5%下调。

该决定反映了中东冲突升级带来的双重风险,包括通胀的上行压力、经济增长的下行风险,以及金融和外汇市场的波动。随着2月底美以对伊朗发动袭击,中东战争升级,霍尔木兹海峡实际上被封锁,导致布伦特原油价格在3月份上涨超过60%,突破每桶100美元。3月份消费者物价指数同比上涨2.2%,高于2月份的2.0%,目前的年度通胀率预计将超过此前2.2%的预测值。韩元对美元汇率一度跌至1500左右,创下自2009年以来的最低水平,但在美伊达成两周停火协议后已部分回升。

尽管半导体出口强劲且政府计划实施26.2万亿韩元的补充预算,但韩国银行仍下调了2026年的经济增长预期,将其降至此前2%的预测值以下。受危机影响,经合组织(OECD)将韩国2026年的增长预测从2.1%下调至1.7%。行长李昌镛在敲槌开始会议时表示:“今天的决定不仅仅是推迟判断,而是反映了我们需要更仔细地观察中东冲突的发展情况。”

李昌镛指出,目前滞胀风险依然较低但难以预测。他补充称,如果局势稳定,在充足的外汇流动性支持下,韩元汇率可能会“相当迅速地回落”至冲突前的水平。尽管有相关监管措施,首尔和京畿道的房价仍在持续上涨,社会各界呼吁解决首都圈人口过分集中的问题。李昌镛的任期将于4月20日结束,申铉松已被提名为继任者。

人们在说什么

X平台上的讨论重点关注韩国银行连续第七次将基准利率维持在2.5%,原因是中东局势的不确定性加剧了通胀风险和经济增长放缓。分析师指出,通胀预期上升、增长预期下调以及债券收益率预示着未来潜在的加息可能。李昌镛行长强调近期内不会调整利率,并将监测可能比乌克兰战争更严重的供应冲击。市场情绪整体持中立态度,交易员聚焦于市场反应,同时也对滞胀风险背景下利率维持的时间长度存在一些质疑。

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