President Claudia Sheinbaum presented an electoral reform initiative last week aiming to change the allocation of proportional representation seats and regulate campaign financing. Analysts warn that, though diluted compared to previous proposals, it poses a high risk of inequity by favoring Morena. The proposal raises doubts about its true intent, potentially paving the way for changes in secondary laws.
The electoral reform initiative sent by President Claudia Sheinbaum proposes allocating 100 proportional representation seats through votes in circumscriptions and another 100 to the best losers, as detailed by analyst Gustavo Zúgiña Colín, director of Imperium Político. This change would mainly impact the PRI, currently the fifth force in the Chamber of Deputies and fourth in the Senate, while Morena's allies like PT and PVEM would suffer less, though affected by resource cuts. Zúgiña Colín stated that 'the party that has lost in recent years is the PRI; they are going to send the PRI to the bottom'.
Consulting firm Integralia describes the proposal as 'diluted' and of lesser scope than Andrés Manuel López Obrador's Plans A and B in 2022, but still 'regressive' and 'high risk'. It warns that it reduces public financing and radio/TV time for parties, allows intervention by parties and governments in popular consultations and mandate revocation, and omits key issues like overrepresentation in Congress, parliamentary defection, and organized crime interference in elections. However, it introduces financial system monitoring for electoral resources and bans cash contributions to combat illicit financing.
In an opinion analysis, Edmundo Jacobo criticizes the initiative for its technical weakness and lack of precise diagnosis, seeing it as an ideological recipe that omits reforms to secondary laws like the General Law of Electoral Institutions and Procedures. He suggests it could be the real 'Plan A' to modify electoral rules with a simple majority in Congress, where Morena holds such an advantage, ensuring favorable conditions for the 2027 midterm elections and the 2030 presidential race. Jacobo contrasts this with the Mexican government's stance of prudence toward external threats from the United States, arguing that internally a unilateral vision is imposed on democracy.
The proposal does not address the concurrency of judicial elections with other polls, posing an operational risk for the INE, according to Integralia. Analysts agree that without secondary reforms, it is hard to estimate all implications, but the set of changes fosters inequity by favoring the ruling party.
