Argentina's country risk closed on Thursday, February 5, 2026, at 516 basis points, up 14 units from the previous day, amid global volatility and the arrival of an IMF mission. Argentine assets on Wall Street fell up to 8.5%, while sovereign bonds showed mixed results. Experts attribute the rise mainly to international factors rather than local deteriorations.
The country risk indicator, compiled by JP Morgan, rose 2.8% on Thursday, February 5, 2026, closing at 516 basis points after starting the day at 502 and reaching a high of 520. This level marks the highest since January 25 and reflects an upward trend over the past week, from 496 points on January 30.
The trading session was marked by declines in Argentine stocks (ADRs) in New York, with drops of up to 8.5% in Supervielle and BBVA, and 8.2% in Grupo Galicia. In contrast, most dollar-denominated bonds reversed initial losses and traded higher, led by AL30 (+0.5%) and GD46 (+0.2%), though some like AL41 (-0.8%) and GD35 (-0.2%) closed lower. The local Merval index fell 2% to 1,985 points, with declines in BBVA (-5.9%) and Supervielle (-5.1%).
Global volatility, driven by nervousness in the U.S. tech sector over the impact of artificial intelligence on software companies, affected emerging markets. "The movement above 500 points responds more to a global portfolio rebalancing than to a specific deterioration in Argentina," explained Leo Anzalone, director of CEPEC, to Perfil. Domestically, the Central Bank accumulated nearly US$1,300 million in currency purchases this year, targeting US$10,000 million by the end of 2026, and a US$832 million payment to the IMF was made this week.
At the same time, an IMF technical mission arrived in Argentina for the second review of the agreement signed with Javier Milei's government in the first quarter of 2025. The delegation, led by Luis Cubeddu and Bikas Joshi, is assessing compliance with fiscal and economic targets amid the recent resignation of Marco Lavagna from INDEC and the suspension of a new inflation measurement methodology.
The country risk measures the premium that emerging market bonds pay over U.S. Treasuries, indicating investor perceptions of a country's repayment capacity. An elevated level like 516 points raises external financing costs and limits economic growth.
