Experts react to Casen 2024 poverty drop amid calls for policy reform

Chile's Casen 2024 survey reports income poverty falling to 17.3% under stricter methodology—a drop of over 600,000 people since 2022—but experts caution against complacency. With one-fifth of the population still vulnerable and rising state subsidy reliance, analysts advocate sustainable reforms like negative income tax and enhanced job opportunities.

The Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (Casen) 2024, released this week, confirms poverty declining to 17.3% even with updated, more rigorous standards that adjust poverty lines and refine the food basket. This progress occurs despite economic challenges, yet leaves 3.48 million Chileans below the line and highlights growing dependency on state aid.

Economist Julio Guzmán Cox, in a La Tercera letter, welcomes the decline but criticizes fragmented subsidies, proposing a negative income tax to boost incomes, formalize labor, and enable lasting poverty reduction.

Romina Salinas of Instituto Res Publica stresses persistent issues: rising state assistance in vulnerable households erodes self-reliance. She calls for long-term investments in education, training, formal jobs, and opportunities where 'merit and effort' yield rewards.

These views underscore the consensus for structural policies beyond short-term gains, as Chile addresses poverty affecting nearly 20% under prior measures.

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Chileans celebrate poverty rate falling to 17.3% per Casen 2024 survey, with graphs showing decline and subsidy reliance highlighted on a Santiago billboard.
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Chile's poverty rate falls to 17.3% according to Casen 2024

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The Chilean government presented the Casen 2024 survey results, showing income poverty dropping to 17.3%, equivalent to nearly 600,000 fewer people than in 2022, under a more stringent methodology. However, the poorest households increasingly rely on state subsidies, which now make up 69% of their income. Extreme poverty stands at 6.9%, while multidimensional poverty falls to 17.7%.

Economists Bernardo Fontaine and Bettina Horst have warned that the poverty drop revealed by the Casen 2024 survey stems mainly from state subsidies, not rising autonomous household incomes. In a Radio Agricultura discussion, both experts—potential cabinet picks for José Antonio Kast—criticized the growing state dependence and fiscal fragility. The poverty rate fell to 17.3%, but gaps persist, especially among migrants.

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On November 19, 2025, Welfare Secretary Ariadna Montiel Reyes appeared before the Chamber of Deputies to highlight poverty reduction advances during the review of President Claudia Sheinbaum's First Government Report. She reported that 13.4 million people escaped poverty from 2018 to 2024, and 32 million receive social programs with an investment of about 850 billion pesos. The session featured opposition criticisms on coverage and access to services.

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In a chronicle published on January 31, 2026, economist Nicolas Baverez portrays France as Europe's Argentina, undermined by demagoguery that impoverishes the middle class and drives the exodus of talents and capital. Wealth per inhabitant fell to 38,110 euros in 2024, ranking the country 34th worldwide and 7% below the EU average for the third consecutive year.

A University of Buenos Aires report reveals that nearly 70% of young people aged 16 to 24 work informally in Argentina. Factors such as lack of education and poverty drive this situation, which particularly affects young men. Meanwhile, the overall unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in the third quarter of 2025.

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