Ernesto O’Farrill Santoscoy, president of Bursamétrica and columnist for El Financiero, outlines 10 unpredictable events that could negatively affect Mexico and the world in 2026, termed black swans.
In his column ‘The 10 main black swans for 2026’, Ernesto O’Farrill Santoscoy examines extreme scenarios based on Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s concept: unpredictable events with massive impact that seem obvious afterward. At least five predictions directly affect Mexico, while international ones involve global tensions with local repercussions.
For Mexico, O’Farrill foresees the possible US exit from the T-MEC under Donald Trump’s second term, replaced by bilateral deals, which could activate if Congress does not intervene within six months. Another threat is a US military intervention against cartels, fracturing bilateral relations; President Claudia Sheinbaum has replied: “That won’t happen”. Additionally, an internal rupture in Morena could cause legislative paralysis and economic deterioration. Financially, losing investment grade due to sovereign debt downgrade by two of three major agencies would have severe consequences. Finally, escalating insecurity might lead to curfews, though the government reports homicide reductions.
Globally, key risks include China’s invasion of Taiwan, disrupting TSMC’s chip supply chain; the Russia-Ukraine war escalating to the European Union; a tech stock crash from the AI bubble; Trump’s death, with J.D. Vance assuming an extreme nationalist agenda; and a new paralyzing pandemic. O’Farrill stresses these are imaginative exercises of improbable but catastrophic events, without foreseeing issues for the 2026 World Cup.
