A poll released early in 2026 shows President Lula leading in electoral scenarios, with Tarcísio de Freitas as the only opponent tying in the second round. The survey highlights the persistence of polarization between Lula and bolsonarismo, with no clear space for a third way. Analysts note that the election will be decided by rejections, amid challenges like incumbent fatigue and effects of judicial convictions.
The first electoral poll of 2026, conducted by Instituto Ideia in partnership with the Meio portal, reveals a polarized scenario similar to 2022. Lula leads with over 40% of voting intentions in main simulations, while Tarcísio de Freitas, São Paulo's governor, polls at about 33% and is the only one to technically tie with the president in the second round. However, Tarcísio's presidential candidacy remains uncertain, as he reiterates interest in state reelection.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator and recent entrant in the race, registers 26% against nearly 40% for Lula, below Tarcísio's performance. The institute's CEO, Cila Schulman, summarizes: "In the collective imagination, the election is still seen as a clash between Lula and bolsonarismo. Other pre-candidates have not yet presented themselves clearly to the country".
Columnist Robson Bonin assesses that polarization remains intact, with the election heading toward being "an election of veto". Candidate rejection, more than proposals, will be decisive, with no viable third way despite multiple pre-candidacies.
This context fits regional trends: between 2022 and 2025, 70% of Latin American presidential elections (13 out of 19) resulted in incumbent defeats, driven by everyday dissatisfaction and emphasis on public security, as in Javier Milei's victory in Argentina (2023) and Nayib Bukele's in El Salvador (2024). In Brazil, Lula's government faces incumbent fatigue, with security as its Achilles heel.
Harvard studies warn of the "accountability dilemma" in polarized societies. Jair Bolsonaro's conviction by the TSE (ineligible for eight years since 2023) and STF (until 2060 for coup attempt) slightly reduced his support but decreased trust in courts and democratic norms among his voters, per a 2024 survey of 5,700 Brazilians. Andrew O'Donohue from Harvard explains: "Prosecuting political leaders can risk reprisals".
The 2026 Senate battle is also crucial: 54 of 81 seats will be renewed, and the government base needs to elect at least 28 to maintain absolute majority (41). Losing six could raise political costs, allowing right-wing agendas to advance unchecked, as seen in 2025-blocked projects.
