A Genial/Quaest poll released on Sunday shows that 49% of voters believe Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will take his pre-candidacy for the presidency to the end. Belief is higher among Bolsonaro supporters, while Lula voters see the announcement as a negotiation tactic. The move comes amid family maneuvers that centrão politicians interpret as signs of potential withdrawals.
Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, announced his pre-candidacy for the presidency on behalf of the PL party in early December, with the mission to "give continuity to our national project," as stated on December 5. Hours after the announcement, he admitted he might withdraw in exchange for his father's freedom, sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for attempted coup d'état and other crimes. Later, in an interview with VEJA, Flávio stated the candidacy is irreversible: "There is no possibility of going back. My name is put forward and we will start debating more ideas".
A Genial/Quaest poll, released on December 21, reveals that 49% of voters believe he will take the candidacy to the ballot boxes, against 38% who see the move as a negotiation strategy. Among those identifying as Bolsonaro supporters, 81% believe in continuity, while 57% of Lula voters think it is bargaining. Flávio's name gained viability after initial polls placed him ahead of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, the centrão's favorite to represent the right in 2026.
Meanwhile, Carlos Bolsonaro's insistence on running for the Senate in Santa Catarina, despite the opening in Rio de Janeiro due to his brother's decision, is viewed by centrão politicians as a sign that Flávio may back out of the national race. Carlos resigned from his Rio council seat six days after Flávio's announcement and changed his electoral registration to São José in SC, where he frequents a shooting club and maintains contacts. Allies say the move is irreversible, and Carlos declared: "I am going to Santa Catarina to fulfill a calling that I could not achieve here, as I made a choice always guided by my heart. It is not a flight, it is the continuity of a fight".
The family plan aimed to expand presence in the Senate to pressure the STF against Jair Bolsonaro's conviction. Santa Catarina, a staunch Bolsonaro state with 69.3% of votes for the former president in 2022, saw Jair Renan elected councilor in 2024. However, Carlos's migration causes a split in the local right, with Governor Jorginho Mello (PL) needing to yield a spot to him, possibly sidelining Deputy Caroline de Toni. Flávio defended his brother in a CBN interview: "Carlos has this dream of Santa Catarina, he loves that state".
The centrão interprets that Flávio should contest the Senate in Rio, crowded with names like Cláudio Castro and Carlos Portinho, signaling possible support for Tarcísio against Lula. Carlos and Flávio did not respond to reporting contacts.
