The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecasted above-normal rainfall in central and western regions during the March-May long rains, offering hope to farmers and pastoralists in the country's food basket areas. However, experts warn that the driest regions, such as the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands, may not fully recover from the ongoing drought with these rains alone. The government has released about Ksh6 billion to aid the hardest-hit communities.
Kenya is grappling with one of the worst droughts in over four decades, leaving two million people at risk of hunger. The Kenya Meteorological Department states that the March to May long rains are expected to provide significant relief following the failure of last year's short rains.
"The situation in the country's food basket regions looks promising, with enough rain expected during the long rains season," the Kenya Meteorological Department said on Tuesday, February 3.
The forecast predicts above-normal rainfall across central and western Kenya, giving cautious hope to farmers and pastoralists. Yet experts caution that the arid and semi-arid lands, or ASALs, including counties like Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa, will not see full recovery from these rains alone.
"Even average to above-average rainfall may not be adequate to offset the deficit already on the ground, because the OND rainfall failed in these areas," stated the Kenya Meteorological Department Climate Advisor.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has confirmed the government has released approximately Ksh6 billion to support communities in the hardest-hit ASAL counties. The National Drought Management Authority is leading relief efforts, which include food aid, emergency cash transfers, water trucking, expanded school feeding programs, and livestock support through off-take, hay, and vaccines.
The current dry spell is influenced by a mature La Niña event and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, both reducing rainfall in East Africa. Neighboring countries such as Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda face similar challenges, highlighting the need for regional cooperation. Climate scientists are monitoring a potential shift to El Niño conditions from May to July 2026, which could deliver additional rainfall later in the year.
The Kenya Meteorological Department urges communities to remain prepared, as these long rains are crucial for national food and water security.