In a Le Monde op-ed, economist Rémi Jeannin and historian Arnaud Pautet warn against the misleading narrative of France's 'social debt' promoted by BPI director Nicolas Dufourcq. They argue that isolating the social portion of the public deficit makes little sense, as it is artificially created by the state. Their critique targets Dufourcq's book claiming 2,000 billion euros of debt stem from unfunded social benefits over forty years.
Nicolas Dufourcq, head of the Banque publique d’investissement (BPI), has published 'La Dette sociale de la France. 1974-2024' (Odile Jacob, 544 pages, 28.90 euros), claiming that 'of the 3,500 billion euros [of public debt] today, 2,000 billion (…) are social benefits paid on credit over forty years.' This estimate, echoed without challenge in various media appearances including Le Monde, is deemed unfounded by economist Rémi Jeannin and historian Arnaud Pautet.
The book offers historical value by documenting half a century of political life with actor testimonies and raises a legitimate question: what share of public debt can be attributed to increased social spending not covered by compulsory levies?
Yet, the op-ed authors highlight two major methodological flaws. First, Dufourcq tallies public spending since the 1980s at 38,000 billion euros, with 58% (22,200 billion) social, attributing 58% of current debt to 'benefit debt.' This overlooks inflation: per Insee, 1 euro in 2024 has the purchasing power of 0.31 euro in 1980.
Second, automatically assigning these 58% to the current debt stock ignores that social spending has dedicated revenues, such as social contributions, CSG, CRDS, and VAT. It bolsters consumption, social cohesion, growth, and generates a fiscal surplus that curbs borrowing. The authors argue one cannot tally losses without subtracting gains, thus diverting attention from the true financing issues of the French social model.
This op-ed fits into discussions on the 2026 budget, highlighting potential manipulations of budgetary 'plumbing'.