The Houston Texans defeated the Indianapolis Colts 20-16 on Sunday, handing Indy its third loss in four games and allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to take the AFC South lead. Houston's defense stifled the Colts' offense, holding running back Jonathan Taylor to 85 yards. With the division now tightly contested, the Colts must win at Jacksonville in Week 14 to regain control of their playoff destiny.
In a crucial AFC South matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Texans leaned on their league-leading defense to secure a 20-16 victory over the Colts. Houston's unit pressured Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, who completed just 51.9% of his passes amid a fractured fibula. The Texans' offense managed only two touchdowns, but it was enough, with C.J. Stroud sharpening up in the second half by going 9 of 13 for 123 yards after a rusty return from injury.
The Colts, who started the season 7-1, have now dropped three of their last four, surrendering their division lead. Jonathan Taylor was limited to 85 rushing yards as defenses keyed on him, putting extra burden on Jones. Coach Shane Steichen, once a Coach of the Year favorite, faces scrutiny after the skid, with the team now tied at 8-4 with Jacksonville but trailing on tiebreakers.
Postgame, the Jaguars' win over the Titans propelled them to first place at 8-4. According to playoff models, the Colts hold a 68% chance to make the postseason and 34% to win the division, but a Week 14 loss to Jacksonville would drop those to 50% and 14%, respectively. The cleanest path for Indy remains sweeping their final three AFC South games: at Jacksonville (Week 14), home vs. Jacksonville (Week 17), and at Houston (Week 18), securing an 11-6 record and tiebreakers over both rivals.
Houston (7-5) sits one game back in the loss column, bolstered by a 4-1 division record. A Texans win over the Chiefs in Week 14 could slightly boost Indy's overall playoff odds if paired with a Colts victory, though it would tighten the division chase further.
