Ávila hosts rate forum sans Villar, pegs hike cost at $1.8T debt interest

In the latest clash amid tensions with Banco de la República over rate hikes, Colombia's Finance Minister Germán Ávila held a monetary policy forum without central bank Governor Leonardo Villar—who declined over timing concerns—and slammed the recent 200 basis-point increase for curbing 2026 growth to 2.6% while boosting public debt interest by $1.8 trillion.

The Ministry of Finance's forum at the Centro Cultural Gabriel García Márquez on April 21 followed Ávila's walkout from the central bank's March 31 board meeting and a heated April 15 oversight debate with Villar.

Villar cited 'considerations about its timing and the context' in declining Ávila's invitation. The minister, a vocal critic of the rate-hiking cycle, estimated the 200 basis-point move—bringing rates to 11.25%—would shave 0.36 points off 2026 GDP growth, from 2.9% to 2.6%. 'We are dissatisfied... 2.6% is insufficient,' Ávila said, adding it would raise debt interest payments by $1.8 trillion.

Challenging the bank's decisions, Ávila questioned if economics is an 'exact or social science' and noted the political weight of monetary policy. Guests included Daniela Gabor (University of London), former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa, Isabella Weber (University of Massachusetts Amherst), and Matías Vernengo (Bucknell University).

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Banco de la República unanimously holds interest rate at 11.25%, defying hike expectations amid government tensions

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In its May 1, 2026 board meeting, Banco de la República unanimously kept the benchmark interest rate at 11.25%, surprising analysts expecting a hike to combat accelerating inflation. Finance Minister Germán Ávila participated fully, citing constructive dialogue, while board members justified the decision to maintain stability amid political pressures.

Banco de la República general manager Leonardo Villar said monetary policy will keep rates high until inflation returns to the 2%-4% target range. The move followed the board's latest meeting.

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Colombia’s Banco de la República raised interest rates to 12 percent on June 30, 2026, an increase of 75 basis points from 11.25 percent. The decision came during the central bank’s penultimate meeting of the year.

The Autonomous Fiscal Council warned Tuesday about the effects of the additional borrowing project for US$6.200 million. Gross debt would reach up to 43.6% of GDP in 2026.

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Services inflation excluding rent reached 9.1% in May, driven by the 23% minimum wage hike. Market expectations for end-2026 rose to 6.5%.

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