Despite multiple tax reforms, Colombia's government revenue remains between 14.4% and 16.6% of GDP through 2026, according to an analysis by the Universidad Javeriana's Fiscal Observatory. The study highlights a projection shortfall exceeding that of countries like Chile, with overestimation above 4% of GDP. A deficit of up to 8 trillion pesos is forecasted for 2025.
The Universidad Javeriana's Fiscal Observatory has released an analysis questioning the effectiveness of tax reforms promoted by President Gustavo Petro's government. According to the report, despite the implementation of several reforms, tax revenue will remain stable, ranging between 14.4% and 16.6% of GDP from 2023 to 2026.
The study forecasts a shortfall of up to 8 trillion pesos in revenue figures for all of 2025. For 2026, revenue would reach 16.5% of GDP only if the government's proposed tax reform, valued at 16.3 trillion pesos, is implemented; without it, it would be around 15.6% of GDP. However, these projections in the General National Budget lack support from verifiable facts, according to the observatory.
The revenue performance confirms structural limitations within Colombia's fiscal system, independent of reforms, the economists stated. After rebounds in 2021 and 2023, revenues have fallen below 15% of GDP. As of September 2025, tax revenue was 229.40 trillion pesos, up 10.9% from 2024.
Post-pandemic, Colombia's projection shortfalls have exceeded those of Chile, with overestimation above 4% of GDP. The government has advanced 2026 taxes, as in 2023, inflating 2025 coffers but defunding the following year. Moreover, the expectation to increase revenue by 0.9% of GDP through the 2025 reform is unrealistic, as it would require undefined and unexplained structural changes, with no evidence of an inflection point in historical fiscal behavior.