Bank Indonesia (BI) reveals that the rupiah's weakening against the US dollar stems from global pressures, including geopolitical escalation and US President Donald Trump's tariff threats related to Iran. The rupiah closed at 16,860 per US dollar on January 13, 2026, depreciating 1.04 percent year-to-date. BI reaffirms its commitment to maintaining stability through market interventions.
Bank Indonesia reports the ongoing weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar in recent times. Head of the Monetary and Securities Asset Management Department at BI, Erwin G. Hutapea, states that global currency movements at the start of 2026 are influenced by pressures in world financial markets, including escalating geopolitical tensions, concerns over central bank independence in advanced economies, and uncertainty in The Fed's monetary policy amid rising domestic foreign exchange needs.
The rupiah closed at 16,860 per US dollar on Tuesday, January 13, 2026, depreciating 1.04 percent year-to-date, in line with regional weakening such as the South Korean Won down 2.46 percent and the Philippine Peso 1.04 percent. On Wednesday, January 14, 2026, the rupiah edged up slightly in the spot market to 16,869 per US dollar at 09:18 WIB, gaining 0.05 percent from the previous position.
Trump's threat of 25 percent tariffs on countries trading with Iran, confirmed as final, heightens US-China trade tensions, given China's role as a major importer of Iranian oil. Permata Bank's Chief Economist Josua Pardede predicts the rupiah could weaken further, with a trading range of 16,800-16,900 per US dollar that day.
BI maintains stability via NDF interventions in Asian, European, and American offshore markets, as well as spot transactions, DNDF, and SBN purchases in the domestic market. Foreign capital inflows reached Rp 11.11 trillion in January 2026, supported by Indonesia's 5-year CDS risk premium at 72 bps. Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$156.5 billion at the end of December 2025, equivalent to 6.4 months of imports.
Meanwhile, bank credit growth through November 2025 was only 7.74 percent year-on-year, below BI's 8-11 percent projection, despite government fund placements of Rp 276 trillion since September 2025. Analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi assesses that the Finance Minister's Rp 75 trillion withdrawal poses no liquidity risk, with undisbursed loans at Rp 2.509 trillion or 23.18 percent of available ceilings.
