Cuba's National Assembly closes session with 2026 economic plans

The Sixth Ordinary Session of the National Assembly of People's Power, held on December 18, 2025, in Havana, approved the economic plan, budget, and a government program to correct distortions amid a structural crisis worsened by the US blockade. President Miguel Díaz-Canel stressed the need for structural and mental transformations to overcome challenges, as ministers reported failures in tourism, sugar, and energy sectors. A modest 1% GDP growth is projected for 2026, despite prior contractions.

The National Assembly session, concluding on December 18, 2025, addressed Cuba's complex economic situation, acknowledging an 11% GDP contraction since 2020 and a decline in 2025. Economy Minister Joaquín Alonso forecasted 1% growth for 2026, matching the unmet 2025 target, under a 'war economy' with rising tensions. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 74.5 billion Cuban pesos (3.1 billion dollars), near 10% of GDP.

Exports are projected at 9.969 billion dollars, driven by services, but tourism missed targets by 25%, reaching only 917.4 million dollars and 1.9 million visitors—the worst since 2003 excluding the pandemic. The sugar industry produced just 42.5% of planned output, with 150,000 tons, less than half the previous year.

In energy, 1.15 billion dollars were invested, recovering 422 MW of distributed generation and 228 MW thermal, with 41 photovoltaic parks covering 30% of demand at daytime peaks, though deficits up to 2,000 MW persist, leaving over two-thirds of the island without power. Infant mortality rose to 9.8 per 1,000 live births, the highest in recent years.

In his closing speech, Díaz-Canel denounced US aggressions, including against Venezuela, and the blockade intensifying inflation and eroding purchasing power. He approved the Science, Technology, and Innovation Law for technological sovereignty and called to prioritize food production, renewables, and state efficiency. The Ninth Party Congress was postponed to focus on recovery, and 2026 will be named the Year of Fidel Castro Ruz's Centennial.

Prime Minister Manuel Marrero admitted impacts from diseases like dengue, with 52 deaths, and an incomplete housing plan (5,750 units, 53.3% of target), including criticized container homes due to heat. The effective population fell to 9.6 million, projecting 7.7 million by 2050.

"We are making history every day, right now," Díaz-Canel stated, urging creativity and control to defend sovereignty and social justice.

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Cuban parliament session in Havana: deputies discuss economic measures as eight new members take office.
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In Havana on December 18, 2025, the National Assembly of People's Power held its sixth ordinary session of the tenth legislature, where eight new deputies took office and key issues like social justice and economic recovery were discussed.

Cuba is confronting a triple demographic crisis: sustained decline in birth rates, massive exodus of young and skilled population, and accelerated aging transforming its social structure. Authorities confirmed at the National Assembly session on December 18, 2025, that the population declined again this year, projecting only 7.7 million inhabitants by 2050. This endangers the labor force, pension system, and political stability.

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Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz stressed that Cuban municipalities must lead their own development at an extraordinary Provincial Government Council meeting in Ciego de Ávila. He highlighted the province's strategic role in food production amid a war economy imposed by the US blockade. He called for a mentality shift and multiplied concrete actions for sustainability.

President Javier Milei convened his cabinet to a meeting at the Quinta de Olivos on Monday, including an asado, to assess 2025 management and outline priorities for 2026. The gathering aims to solidify the unity of the renewed team and advance key reforms such as the Inocencia Fiscal law and the 2026 Budget. It highlights internal reorganization and legislative strategy amid economic achievements.

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Economist Gabriel Casillas forecasts a 2026 for Mexico with improved growth prospects, driven by the US economy and a light political agenda. He anticipates gradual fiscal consolidation and early inflationary challenges impacting interest rates. He also highlights the T-MEC review and minor local elections.

Following her recent conference speech on reforms, Dr. Rania Al-Mashat, Egypt's Minister of Planning, Economic Development and International Cooperation, briefed newly appointed military attachés on the 2026 economic strategy, highlighting private sector-led growth, green energy, and over 5% GDP growth amid ongoing structural changes.

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Former Economy Minister Hernán Lacunza praised improvements in public accounts for 2024 and 2025 but warned that by the end of 2025, the fiscal situation lacks room for additional maneuvers. His analysis shows an official surplus of 0.2% of GDP, though adjustments for interest and inflation reveal larger deficits. Lacunza stressed that the end of the financial normalization process will demand greater savings efforts.

 

 

 

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