Former Economy Minister Hernán Lacunza praised improvements in public accounts for 2024 and 2025 but warned that by the end of 2025, the fiscal situation lacks room for additional maneuvers. His analysis shows an official surplus of 0.2% of GDP, though adjustments for interest and inflation reveal larger deficits. Lacunza stressed that the end of the financial normalization process will demand greater savings efforts.
Hernán Lacunza, former Economy Minister under Mauricio Macri's government, shared a detailed analysis on the social network X regarding Argentina's public finances under Javier Milei's administration. In his assessment, public accounts have shown significant improvement during 2024-2025, regardless of measurement methods, whether including accrued interest or inflation effects.
Lacunza outlined several key indicators. The official financial surplus reaches 0.2% of GDP on a cash basis, a standard criterion in Argentine public accounts, though criticized for its intensive use of instruments with capitalizable interest like Lecap, Boncap, and CER bonds. If accrued but unpaid interest is included, the result turns into a 4% of GDP deficit. Adjusting for inflation to consider only real interest, this deficit drops to 1.2% of GDP.
The former official noted that the official financial surplus (+0.2% of GDP) is approaching the primary surplus (+1.4% of GDP, excluding interest), a convergence not seen in the last ten years, where the difference typically ranged from 2 to 2.5 GDP points. Additionally, interest on dollar-denominated debt remains low at 3.26% annually of the debt stock for 2025, due to the 2020 restructuring with reduced coupons. However, Lacunza warned that re-entering the voluntary international credit market will raise these costs, as evidenced by a December local issuance yielding 9.26%.
Despite the progress, Lacunza concluded that the situation at the end of 2025 presents 'a fiscal situation without leeway', limiting options like ambitious tax cuts and requiring greater fiscal discipline once financial normalization ends. In response to a query on whether 4% GDP growth would provide relief, he affirmed it would offer 'some margin'.
