In cuba's streets, the potential fall of nicolás maduro sparks persistent worry, akin to power outages. Venezuela has served as a crucial lifeline for the cuban regime since hugo chávez's time, offering subsidized oil and diplomatic support. Though reliance has lessened, its collapse could heighten economic hardships and isolation on the island.
The question of cuba's fate if maduro is ousted echoes through everyday talks in havana, from queues to shared taxis. For over two decades, since chávez's arrival, venezuela became the external lung of castroism, providing not just low-cost fuel but also political backing in international forums and a shared anti-imperialist resistance narrative.
Under maduro, this alliance endures, though cuba's oil reliance on caracas has waned. In recent years, shipments from méxico and rusia have offset pdvsa's production decline, forcing havana to diversify. Yet venezuela remains vital for remaining oil, diplomatic support, and shared intelligence networks.
For cuba's leadership, maduro's endurance affirms their own resilience. His downfall would deliver a shattering message on the 21st-century socialism model's failure, heightening havana's isolation and curbing its ideological sway in latin america. History urges caution, however: the 1991 soviet collapse brought no political pluralism to cuba, but the special period, intensified repression, and limited economic pragmatism that sustained the regime without deep changes.
If maduro falls, cuba would confront unmatched pressures this century: lost allies, narrowed diplomatic room, and perhaps bolder economic shifts. Short-term effects include reduced oil, fewer hard currencies, and heightened social strain. Havana would pursue new partners like moscow, méxico, algeria, or iran, while demanding more from citizens via higher fees and taxes. Repression would rise, turning external crises into internal paranoia.
In the medium term, chavismo's end would undermine castroism's symbolic foundations, such as regional heirs to its project. As yoani sánchez notes in confidencial, regimes ill handle cracks in their mirrors, and cuba would likely resort to tweaks, quiet deals, alternative suppliers, and recycled old slogans.
