Markets closed for Christmas on December 25, 2025, left Tesla shares near the prior $485.40 close, as new details emerged on the NHTSA Model 3 door probe, November sales declines, and unsupervised robotaxi trials in Austin—offsetting lowered Q4 delivery forecasts ahead of January 2 reports.
With U.S. markets shuttered for December 25 following the December 24 close at $485.40, Tesla (TSLA) stock held steady amid ongoing scrutiny from the NHTSA's defect petition DP25002, launched December 23. This probe targets emergency door releases on 179,071 model-year 2022 Model 3s, described as hidden and unintuitive, stemming from a reported crash involving fire and injury. While not yet a recall, it intensifies regulatory headwinds alongside a separate NHTSA review of Full Self-Driving on 2.88 million vehicles and a California DMV hold on Autopilot sales suspension claims (response due mid-February 2026).
Demand signals softened further: Analysts at New Street Research and UBS peg Q4 2025 deliveries at 415,000–435,000 units, below the ~440,000 consensus, due to U.S. slowdowns after the September $7,500 EV tax credit ended. Tesla's U.S. November sales plunged 23% YoY to 39,800 units, prompting 0% financing incentives. In Europe, registrations fell 11.8% amid BYD's 221.8% surge.
Countering bearish notes, autonomy progress shines: Tesla is running robotaxi tests in Austin sans safety drivers, with Cybercab production slated for 2026. Analyst views diverge—UBS rates sell at $247, Morgan Stanley hold at $425, Wedbush outperform at $600—versus a $414.50 consensus. Q4 deliveries, due January 2, 2026, loom large as markets reopen December 26, potentially shifting sentiment amid the probe's developments.
