The Free State of Bavaria anticipates a slight tax revenue increase of around 1.5 billion euros in 2026 compared to the May forecast for 2025. Finance Minister Albert Füracker cautions against euphoria and calls for strict spending discipline. The projection stems from the federal October tax revenue estimate.
Bavaria's Finance Minister Albert Füracker (CSU) told the German Press Agency that the Free State can look forward to higher tax revenues in 2026 than previously forecasted. «Bavaria can expect a slight tax surplus of around 1.5 billion euros in 2026 compared to the particularly poor May estimate for 2025», he said regarding the regionalized October tax revenue projection.
Despite the improved outlook, Füracker immediately cautioned against excessive expectations: «The results of the current tax estimate are also no reason for euphoria in Bavaria.» After years of economic stagnation, the forecasts indicate a modest increase in tax revenues for the coming years. «However, the projected economic growth of 1.3 percent for 2026 must first actually materialize. Moreover, we are still far from our former economic strength.»
Füracker will present the detailed results of the tax estimate at a press conference in Nuremberg on Friday. This projection forms a key basis for the next budget. «For the preparation of the double budget 2026/27, it is clear: There is still no financial leeway for major new expenditures, strict spending discipline, and consolidation wherever possible.»
The estimates from the federal working group «Tax Revenue Projections» are inherently uncertain, particularly given the unstable economic development in Bavaria and Germany as a whole.