Economic policy uncertainty index stands at 252 points in March

April 08, 2026

Iniulat ng AI

Fedesarrollo reported that its Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (Ipec) stood at 252 points in March, a drop of 46 points from February. The figure marks 90 consecutive months above the historical average observed from 2000 to 2019.

The index, which tracks economic policy uncertainty in Colombia by counting related terms in media news, fell from 298 points in February. It rose 30 points compared to March last year.

News coverage in March focused mainly on economic, social, and geopolitical policy at 44.6%, followed by economic activity at 26.8% and other topics at 12.5%. From February, economic activity's share rose by 8.4 percentage points, while security declined by 6.8 points.

Versus March 2025, economic activity increased 17.4 percentage points, and economic, social, and geopolitical policy contracted 12.0 points. Fedesarrollo releases this monthly indicator with a sectoral focus.

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Illustration depicting Argentina's February economic decline with falling graphs, closed factories, and empty shops in Buenos Aires.

Economic activity fell 2.6% in February, according to INDEC

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Argentina's monthly economic activity estimator (EMAE) recorded a 2.1% year-over-year drop and a 2.6% seasonally adjusted decline in February 2026, INDEC reported. Manufacturing industry contracted 8.7% and commerce 7.0% year-over-year.

Commercial confidence rises 0.2% in March as industrial falls, Fedesarrollo says

Fedesarrollo's March business opinion survey showed the commercial confidence index at 22.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from February, thanks to reduced inventories. In contrast, the industrial confidence index fell 3.2 points into negative territory amid lower production expectations.

Private estimates predict economic rebound in March after February drop

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After a 2.6% drop in economic activity in February, according to INDEC, private consultancies estimate a March recovery driven by agriculture. Equilibra forecasts a 1.5% year-on-year rise and 1% monthly desesasonalized. The first quarter would end with 0.4% growth versus 2025.

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Colombia's manufacturing production rose 1.4% in February 2026 compared to the previous year, but real sales fell 2.5%, according to Dane data. Andi president Bruce Mac Master said the figures show stagnation and that the sector has yet to take off. Employed personnel dropped 0.4%.

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Dane reported Colombia's February 2026 unemployment rate at 9.2%, the lowest for any February since 2001, with 2.45 million unemployed people. Occupied population rose to 24.09 million, up 624,000 from February 2025. President Gustavo Petro and Labor Minister Antonio Sanguino hailed the figures and defended the minimum wage increase.

Ecopetrol and Cibest shares lead investors' preferences in April

Fedesarrollo and BVC's Financial Opinion Survey showed Ecopetrol's ordinary share and Cibest's shares as the most sought-after by analysts in April, with 41.7% selections. Analysts expect the intervention rate to range from 11.7% to 12% through July. They also foresee appreciation in the MSCI Colcap index over the next three months.

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Grupo Cibest warned of high labor informality and vulnerable self-employment in Colombia, despite job creation recovery. Dane data showed an unemployment rate of 8.8% in March. The report highlights challenges including 55.6% informality and wage growth without productivity gains.

May 20, 2026 09:30

Economic policy uncertainty index stands at 252 points in March

Mga Kaugnay na Artikulo

Economic activity fell 2.6% in February, according to INDEC

Commercial confidence rises 0.2% in March as industrial falls, Fedesarrollo says

Private estimates predict economic rebound in March after February drop

Colombia's unemployment rate drops to 8.8% in March 2026

Congress launches family vulnerability index amid economic crisis

Mexican economy shows signs of slowdown in February

Manufacturing production rises 1.4% in February despite sales drop

Colombia's February unemployment rate drops to 9.2%

Ecopetrol and Cibest shares lead investors' preferences in April

Grupo Cibest warns of high informality in Colombian labor market

Ecopetrol, GEB and Cibest lead investor appetite in May

Central bank raises rates by 200 basis points amid rising inflation

Argentina's country risk closes April at 567 basis points

Colombia's February 2026 ISE grows 1.65%, second month below 2%

IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026

Luis Caputo estimates March inflation above 3%

Consultancies raise inflation projections in BCRA's REM survey

Chilean economy contracts 0.3% in February per Central Bank Imacec

January ISE falls below 2% for first time in 11 months

Colombia's inflation eases to 5.29% in February 2026

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