Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, describes 2026 as a challenging year to predict for bitcoin due to macroeconomic uncertainties and market signals. Despite this, the firm upholds a bullish long-term view, targeting $250,000 by the end of 2027. Options markets reflect wide-ranging price possibilities, highlighting the asset's evolving maturity.
Galaxy Research, the research division of Galaxy Digital, has outlined significant challenges in forecasting bitcoin's performance for 2026. In a December 18 report titled “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026,” the firm points to overlapping macroeconomic risks, political uncertainties, and uneven crypto market momentum as key factors. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, elaborated on these views in a December 21 post on X, calling the coming year “too chaotic to predict.”
At the time of Thorn's comments, the broader crypto market was in a bear phase, with bitcoin failing to sustain momentum above the $100,000 to $105,000 range. He noted that downside risks persist until the asset breaks decisively higher. Derivatives markets amplify this uncertainty: bitcoin options pricing suggests traders see roughly equal chances of prices hitting $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, and $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end. Such broad ranges indicate institutional investors are hedging against major swings rather than betting on a clear direction.
Thorn highlighted signs of bitcoin's structural maturation. Long-term volatility has been declining, partly due to institutional strategies like options overwriting and yield-generation programs that reduce extreme price fluctuations. The volatility smile now prices downside protection more expensively than upside exposure, a trait more typical of established macro assets like equities or commodities than high-growth trades.
Even a potentially range-bound or subdued 2026 would not derail bitcoin's trajectory, according to Thorn. He emphasized ongoing institutional adoption as the core driver. The report anticipates that a major asset-allocation platform may soon include bitcoin in standard model portfolios, embedding it into routine investment strategies and ensuring steady inflows irrespective of market cycles. Thorn envisions bitcoin emulating gold as a hedge against monetary debasement, supported by expanding access, possible monetary easing, and demand for fiat alternatives. This underpins Galaxy's projection of $250,000 by the end of 2027.
