Mexico surpasses Canada as main destination for US exports in 2025

In 2025, Mexico became the top market for US exports, with $337.9 billion, surpassing Canada for the first time at $336.5 billion. This milestone underscores the growing trade integration under the T-MEC and bilateral dynamism. Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard highlighted these figures on social media as evidence of the Mexico-US relationship's weight.

US Department of Commerce figures show that in 2025, US exports to Mexico reached $337.9 billion, accounting for 15.5% of the country's total shipments. This exceeded Canada, which received $336.5 billion, or 15.4%. According to Mexico's Business Coordinating Council, it is the first time annually that Mexico receives more US exports than Canada.

Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard shared these figures on social media, adding that Mexico is the main destination for 25% of US industrial sectors. An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) states that since 2020, Mexico has been the fastest-growing and most stable US export destination, with exports doubling over 15 years. This illustrates how a more prosperous Mexico has become a key market for US products.

In the context of trade tensions under the Donald Trump administration, Mexico avoided adverse scenarios through pragmatic negotiations, unlike Canada, which initially imposed retaliatory tariffs. Statistics Canada data indicate that Canadian imports from the US fell 6.2% in December 2025 compared to the previous year, and exports to the US dropped 5.7%, resulting in the narrowest trade surplus with the US in five years.

Bidirectionally, Mexico's exports to the US closed at $534.9 billion, a record with 5.8% growth, capturing 15.7% of US imports. This widened the US trade deficit with Mexico to $196.9 billion, a 14.8% increase from 2024, positioning Mexico as the second-largest US deficit after China. In December, Mexico's exports to the US totaled $42.4 billion, the highest monthly historical figure.

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Split-image illustration showing Mexico's booming FDI inflows contrasting with industrial stagnation and GDP decline.
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Mexico's economy shows contrasts with record FDI and stagnation

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Mexico recorded a record foreign direct investment of 40,906 million dollars in the first nine months of 2025, a 14.5% increase from 2024. However, GDP contracted 0.3% in the third quarter and the IGAE fell 0.6% in September, indicating economic stagnation. Analysts warn of fragility in the industrial sector and risks to employment.

Mexico's merchandise exports to the United States hit a record high of $44.5 billion in November 2025, solidifying the country as the top trading partner of the world's largest economy.

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Mexico recorded a historic inflow of 40,871 million dollars in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) during 2025, a 10.8 percent increase from the previous year. The Secretariat of Economy noted that this flow positions the country as a strategic destination for global productive capital, despite a 2 percent decline in developing economies. The growth was mainly driven by new investments that rose 133 percent.

Following Senate approval of tariffs on over 1,400 Asian products amid USMCA review tensions, Mexico published a decree on December 29, 2025, in the Official Gazette detailing 5% to 50% duties on imports from non-free trade agreement countries like China, effective January 1, 2026. Affecting goods such as clothing, toys, shampoo, and auto parts, the measures aim to protect domestic industry and generate 70 billion pesos in revenue with minimal 0.2% inflation impact.

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Mexico's Senate has approved legislation imposing tariffs of up to 50 per cent on more than 1,400 products from Asian countries, primarily targeting Chinese imports to bolster domestic producers. President Claudia Sheinbaum defended the move, stating it supports the 'Plan Mexico' without harming the national economy. Beijing has criticised the duties as damaging to its interests.

Mexico became Cuba's main oil supplier in 2025, overtaking Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro's capture. Pemex sends high-quality light crudes like Istmo and Olmeca, suited to the island's outdated refineries, though this imposes a significant economic cost on the country. President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed the shipments will continue as humanitarian aid, despite potential reprisals from Donald Trump.

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The US Supreme Court declared illegal the reciprocal tariffs and the fentanyl tariff imposed by Donald Trump under the IEEPA. Mexico keeps zero tariffs for T-MEC compliant goods, but non-compliant ones drop from 25% to 15%. This narrows the competitive edge of non-compliant Mexican exports.

 

 

 

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