Siaya Governor James Orengo faces the risk of losing his seat in the 2027 elections after joining the Linda Mwananchi faction opposing ODM's alliance with UDA. Dr Oburu Oginga, leader of another ODM faction, has announced support for Nicholas Gumbo to challenge for the governorship. The situation mirrors Orengo's 2002 fallout that led to his defeat.
Siaya Governor James Orengo, serving his first term, belongs to the Linda Mwananchi faction within ODM that opposes the party's alliance with UDA under the coalition government and President William Ruto's re-election.
The faction led by Dr Oburu Oginga has initiated plans to oust Orengo. Oginga has announced that ODM will back former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo to contest the Siaya governorship in 2027. This means Orengo would need another party's ticket or to run independently if he seeks re-election.
The situation echoes the 2002 elections when Orengo split from Raila Odinga and ran for president on the Social Democratic Party (SDP) ticket, securing only 0.4% of the vote. He also lost the Ugenya parliamentary seat.
Analysts such as Ambrose Weda and Collins Ojuok state that Orengo is viewed as an enemy to Nyanza's benefits due to his stance. In the 2022 elections, Orengo won with 220,349 votes against Gumbo's 147,558, backed by Raila. However, his Ugenya area has just 69,027 registered voters compared to larger constituencies.
