In 2026, Germany faces five state elections that will challenge the federal government. Economic recovery remains weak, and reforms in social systems are pressing. Internationally, Donald Trump dominates with major plans in the USA.
Germany's political landscape in 2026 will be shaped by five state elections: Baden-Württemberg on March 8, Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20, and Berlin on September 20. In Baden-Württemberg, CDU candidate Manuel Hagel is favored against Green Cem Özdemir; AfD could become second strongest, while SPD and FDP perform poorly. In Rhineland-Palatinate, CDU's Gordon Schnieder, brother of the federal transport minister, leads SPD incumbent Alexander Schweitzer by six to seven percentage points. Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern face potential AfD dominance with up to 40 percent, possibly forcing minority governments. In Berlin, CDU with Kai Wegner and The Left lead, but a majority seems unlikely.
Economically, the federal government expects 1.3 percent growth, the Bundesbank only 0.9 percent, financed by high state debts. The Bundesbank forecasts: “Strongly rising wages and a gradually improving labor market support the real disposable incomes of private households.” Unemployment falls slightly due to demographics, inflation stays above two percent. Reform pressure in health, pensions, and care grows as expenditures explode.
Infrastructure is alarming: Around 11,000 bridges need modernization, per a Federal Court of Auditors report. Chancellor Friedrich Merz symbolically opens a new bridge over the Rahmedetal on the A45.
In the US, Trump plans big for 2026: The FIFA World Cup from June 11 to July 19 in Canada, Mexico, and USA; the 250th anniversary on July 4 with pompous celebrations and “Patriot Games”; midterm elections on November 3; the G20 summit on December 14/15 at his Miami golf resort, inviting Putin and Xi Jinping but excluding South Africa. This could leave Europe with more responsibility, especially for Ukraine support.
