The Rassemblement National (RN) promises 100 billion euros in savings to cut the deficit below 3% of GDP in five years, but analyses highlight unrealistic figures. François Ecalle, a public finance expert, criticizes estimates on immigration in particular. These measures form the basis of the party's program for potential early legislative elections and the 2027 presidential race.
For two months, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) has highlighted massive state budget savings to fund its costly economic relaunch program. Party president Jordan Bardella announced 100 billion euros in savings in a letter to entrepreneurs in early September. Le Monde repeatedly sought details from the RN without success, describing this five-year horizon promise as a "pious wish".
The RN's parliamentary group detailed some budgetary reflections. These mix continuation of Emmanuel Macron's supply-side policy, savings on immigration and fraud, and VAT cuts for the popular electorate. François Ecalle, former magistrate at the Cour des comptes and founder of Fipeco.fr, states in a Monde interview that "this project [is] as hard to quantify as to qualify".
On immigration, the RN targets a net gain of 25 billion euros. But a 2021 Conseil d'analyse économique report assesses the impact between a 0.5% GDP loss (-15 billion euros) and a 0.5% gain (+15 billion). Ecalle finds "several [RN] evaluations [seem] unreasonable", even taking the pessimistic scenario. The RN likely overestimates its measures, some of which contravene the Constitution or EU rules. Achieving under 3% deficit would require spectacular growth or additional choices: further savings, disinvestment in public services, or dropping promises on taxes and pensions.