Monetary Policy
Copom cuts Selic from 15% to 14.75% amid war uncertainties
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Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 15% to 14.75% per year, on Wednesday (18). The unanimous decision, the first under Gabriel Galípolo's management, comes despite the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which pushed oil prices above US$ 100 per barrel. The statement stresses caution due to uncertainty over the duration of the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
John Greenwood, the architect of Hong Kong's dollar peg, says fears over drawing HK$150 billion from the Exchange Fund for infrastructure are overblown. He argues the move poses no threat to the monetary system and represents a legitimate long-term investment.
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The Ibovespa fell 0.61% on Friday, March 6, closing at 179,300 points, impacted by the Middle East war and a weak US payroll. The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran drove up oil prices, raising global inflation concerns. Analysts see room for US interest rate cuts, but risks remain.
The Bank of Mexico paused its rate-cutting cycle and kept the reference rate at 7.0 percent in its first monetary policy meeting of the year. It also revised its inflation expectations, delaying convergence to the 3.0 percent target until the second quarter of 2027. Analysts note a cautious stance amid fiscal impacts and upside risks.
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Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) reported that annual inflation for January 2026 stood at 5.35%, up 13 basis points from January 2025. Driven by lodging services, restaurants, and food, the figure slightly exceeded market expectations. This data will guide the Central Bank's monetary policy decisions.
Colombia's central bank may hike its policy rate by 50 basis points to 9.75% at its January 30 meeting, according to analysts surveyed by Anif and Corficolombiana. The move would address 2025 inflation of 5.15% and a 23% minimum wage increase that has boosted inflation expectations. The global context, with steady Fed rates and Brazil's policy, shapes the local outlook.
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Building on its 3.8% gain in the first 14 days of January, the Colombian peso has appreciated further by 4.5% over the first 22 days, maintaining its top position among emerging currencies. New international factors like Donald Trump's Greenland comments and a national pension decree bolster the trend, with the Chilean peso (3.8%) and Russian ruble (3.79%) trailing.
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