Cook Political Report boosts Democrats' odds in key Senate races

A new Cook Political Report indicates shifting odds in favor of Democrats in several U.S. Senate races ahead of November's midterms. Analysts cite President Trump's declining approval ratings and energized Democratic voters as key factors. However, retaking Senate control remains an uphill battle.

The Cook Political Report's latest assessment shows Democrats gaining ground in competitive Senate contests, particularly in Georgia and North Carolina, now rated as leaning Democrat. Jessica Taylor, the report's Senate editor, attributed the shift to Trump's approval hovering near 40%, amid an unpopular war, tenuous ceasefire, skyrocketing gas prices, and weak numbers on the economy and immigration. Midterms typically serve as a referendum on the president's party, Taylor noted during an NPR interview with A Martínez.

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Illustration of the difficult Democratic path in the 2026 Senate elections on a US map.
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Democrats’ 2026 Senate path runs through a difficult map, even with several plausible pickup targets

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Democrats see opportunities in a handful of Republican-held seats in 2026, but the Senate’s arithmetic means multiple wins could still fall short of a governing majority.

With 129 days left until the US midterm elections that will renew the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate.

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With a little over five months until the November 2026 general election, Republican speakers in Iowa are promoting what they describe as policy victories under President Donald Trump while arguing that Democratic proposals would raise costs. The pitch comes as Republicans also confront voter concerns about higher gas prices and an unpopular U.S. war in Iran, according to an NPR report from Iowa.

Voters in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico went to the polls on Tuesday to nominate candidates for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House seats ahead of the fall midterms.

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As midterm elections approach, many Democratic politicians have reduced mentions of climate change in speeches and public statements. The shift follows the 2024 presidential election loss. Experts debate whether the approach helps or harms the party.

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