Cook Political Report boosts Democrats' odds in key Senate races

A new Cook Political Report indicates shifting odds in favor of Democrats in several U.S. Senate races ahead of November's midterms. Analysts cite President Trump's declining approval ratings and energized Democratic voters as key factors. However, retaking Senate control remains an uphill battle.

The Cook Political Report's latest assessment shows Democrats gaining ground in competitive Senate contests, particularly in Georgia and North Carolina, now rated as leaning Democrat. Jessica Taylor, the report's Senate editor, attributed the shift to Trump's approval hovering near 40%, amid an unpopular war, tenuous ceasefire, skyrocketing gas prices, and weak numbers on the economy and immigration. Midterms typically serve as a referendum on the president's party, Taylor noted during an NPR interview with A Martínez.

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Illustration of the difficult Democratic path in the 2026 Senate elections on a US map.
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Democrats’ 2026 Senate path runs through a difficult map, even with several plausible pickup targets

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Democrats see opportunities in a handful of Republican-held seats in 2026, but the Senate’s arithmetic means multiple wins could still fall short of a governing majority.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned that Democrats are trailing historical benchmarks in popularity ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Speaking on Monday with anchor John Berman, Enten highlighted Republicans' current five-point lead in net favorability. He assessed Democrats' chances as better for the House than the Senate.

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Voters in Wisconsin and Georgia delivered wins for Democrats on Tuesday, continuing a trend of overperformance since the 2024 presidential election. Liberal Chris Taylor won a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, expanding the court's liberal majority to 5-2. In Georgia's 14th Congressional District, Republican Clay Fuller defeated Democrat Sean Harris in a special election runoff.

A new POLITICO survey highlights deep divisions between Democrats and Republicans over what threatens U.S. election integrity ahead of the 2026 midterms. More than a third of Americans believe the contests could be stolen, though the two parties disagree sharply on the main risks. The poll, conducted in mid-April, underscores ongoing distrust in the voting system.

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Voters across Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania went to the polls Tuesday in the busiest primary day of the 2026 midterms so far.

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